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How soon will the 'ice apocalypse' come?

An emotive article on the ‘ice apocalypse’ by Eric Holthaus describes a terrifying vision of catastrophic sea level rise this century caused by climate change and the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet. But how likely is this – and how soon could such a future be here?

I’ve been gripped by the story of Antarctic ‘ice cliff instability’ ever since Rob DeConto and Dave Pollard published their controversial predictions last year. They suggested disintegration of ice shelves caused by global warming could leave behind coastal ice cliffs so tall they would be unstable, crumbling endlessly into the ocean and causing rapid, sustained sea level rise.

I’m glad Eric Holthaus is writing about an impact of climate change that is both certain (seas will rise around the world, no matter what we do) and incredibly important (we must adapt). I’m sympathetic to his concerns about the future. But I think his article is too pessimistic: that it overstates the possibility of disaster. Too soon, too certain.

Related: The climate has changed before. But this is different – look at the archeological record

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Australia facing climate disaster on its doorstep, government's white paper warns

Foreign policy paper says climate-related conflict and migration could put Australia’s economic interests under pressure

Climate change is creating a disaster on Australia’s doorstep, with environmental degradation and the demand for sustainable sources of food undermining stability in some countries, especially “fragile states”, according to the Australian government’s first foreign policy white paper in more than a decade.

The new white paper, released on Thursday, contains warnings over the disruptive effects of climate change in Australia’s immediate region, noting that many small island states will be “severely affected in the long term”, and the coming decade will see increased need for disaster relief.

Related: Adani reportedly near deal with China to fund Carmichael rail line

Related: We can still prise coal’s fingers off our necks in Australia | Tim Hollo

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Treasury backs electric cars but makes limited moves on diesel

Funds set aside for national charging network and tech research, but lack of scrappage scheme disappoints

Electric cars have received a funding boost with the government earmarking £340m for a national charging network and subsidies for vehicle purchases.

However, further budget backing for greener vehicles was limited to a small rise in vehicle excise duty for new diesel cars that fail to meet rigorous emissions standards – disappointing campaigners who had hoped for a rise in fuel duty or a diesel scrappage scheme.

Related: Key points from budget 2017 – at a glance

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No subsidies for green power projects before 2025, says UK Treasury

Government accused of ‘turning their back on renewables’ after saying there will be no more money for new low-carbon levies

Companies hoping to build new windfarms, solar plants and tidal lagoons, have been dealt a blow after the government said there would be no new subsidies for clean power projects until 2025 at the earliest.

The Treasury said it had taken the decision to “protect” consumers, because households and businesses were facing an annual cost of about £9bn on their energy bills to pay for wind, solar and nuclear subsidies to which it had already committed.

Related: Renewable power critic is chosen to head energy price review

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Too right it's Black Friday: our relentless consumption is trashing the planet | George Monbiot

Growth must go on – it’s the political imperative everywhere, and it’s destroying the Earth. But there’s no way of greening it, so we need a new system

Everyone wants everything – how is that going to work? The promise of economic growth is that the poor can live like the rich and the rich can live like the oligarchs. But already we are bursting through the physical limits of the planet that sustains us. Climate breakdown, soil loss, the collapse of habitats and species, the sea of plastic, insectageddon: all are driven by rising consumption. The promise of private luxury for everyone cannot be met: neither the physical nor the ecological space exists.

Related: UK environment department using 1,400 disposable coffee cups a day

I know people who recycle meticulously, measure the water in their kettles, then take their holidays in the Caribbean

Related: Insectageddon: farming is more catastrophic than climate breakdown | George Monbiot

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Battered by extreme weather, Americans are more worried about climate change | Dana Nuccitelli

After months of intense hurricanes, heat waves, and droughts, a survey finds a record number of Americans worried about climate change

The latest climate change survey from Yale and George Mason Universities is out, and it shows that Americans are still poorly-informed about the causes of global warming. Only 54% understand that it’s mostly human-caused, while 33% incorrectly believe global warming is due mainly to natural factors.

In fact, a new study published in Nature Scientific Reports developed a real-time global warming index. It shows that humans are responsible for 1°C global surface warming over the past 150 years – approximately 100% of the warming we’ve observed. Lead author Karsten Haustein explained their new index and study in a blog post.

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My granddaughter will be 35 in 2050. I grieve that she will know silent and empty places | Christine Milne

Australia’s white lemuroid possum became my symbol for habitat loss and global warming that will send one-third of species to extinction by mid-century

It was 8 November, 2011 and I had just had one of the best days of my parliamentary career. We had made history when the Senate adopted legislation to implement an emissions trading scheme to address global warming. I was both exhausted and excited, having negotiated and shepherded the legislation through the senate for the Greens. It had been a long haul over many years.

Then an email landed in my inbox; after some preliminary congratulations, the writer and vice-chancellor of James Cook University, Sandra Harding, asked why I was wearing a polar bear badge in the newspaper photographs and not one representing an Australian animal.

Related: Revealed: first mammal species wiped out by human-induced climate change

Much has been written about how global warming will affect the colder parts of the planet – the polar and boreal regions, glaciers, and alpine mountains. In fact, some of the warmest places on Earth, especially tropical rainforests, could also be intensely vulnerable to climate change … many people are unaware that tropical species – particularly those specialised for cool, cloudy mountaintops – are often sensitive to hot weather … as temperatures rise mountaintop specialists have nowhere to go. Their populations will wither and shrink and potentially disappear altogether.

The fruit bats normally just doze in the treetops through the day but on this afternoon they were fanning themselves, panting frantically, jostling for shady spots and licking their wrists in a desperate effort to cool down. Suddenly when the thermometer hit 42C the bats began falling from the trees. Most quickly died. The research team led by Justin Welbergen counted 1,453 dead from one colony alone.

Just how empty and silent the seas and those landscapes become depends on us

Related: The Earth stands on the brink of its sixth mass extinction and the fault is ours

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The Guardian view on climate talks: Brexit’s heavy weather | Editorial

If Brexit goes ahead, Britain will need to shape a green politics with devolution and social justice at its core. And make sure that politicians cannot renege on our international obligations

The tragedy of climate change, as the governor of the Bank of England has put it, is one of the horizon. The catastrophic impacts of altering the atmosphere impose an enormous cost on future generations that the current generation creates but has no incentive to fix. To focus the minds of today’s decision-makers the 2015 Paris agreement sent a clear signal that the era of fossil-fuel-powered growth was coming to an end. The signatories agreed to limit global warming to no more than a two-degree celsius rise, the threshold of safety, beyond which climate change is likely to become irreversible. The real genius of Paris is not that it is rooted in science but its timing and its structure. While the 2C target was binding, the national targets agreed by each nation were not. Those non-binding targets do not add up to a 2C world – they would, if followed to the letter, lead us to a 3C one, unthinkable in terms of the devastation it would cause. So upping them was part of the point of this year’s UN climate meeting in Bonn, which closed on Friday, and will be the main issue at next year’s, and the year after next.

The US under Donald Trump reneged on the deal before this year’s talks began. There is some solace in the fact that Washington cannot formally withdraw until 4 November 2020, the day after the next presidential election. The rest of the world, rightly, is moving on. Given what is at stake, it is worth pausing to consider where – and how quickly – the globe is going. Backwards – if one considers that China will almost single-handedly cause global emissions of carbon dioxide to grow in 2017. Canada and Britain, meanwhile, began a new 19-nation alliance in Bonn aimed at phasing out the use of coal power by 2030. This sounds like an important move until one realises that members of the “powering past coal alliance” account for less than 3% of coal use worldwide. Germany, which is not a member, held the climate talks an hour’s drive from a village that is being demolished to make way for a coalmine. These green talks, which are fundamentally about ethical concerns, are nevertheless becoming more like discussions about trade. In the case of climate change these involve transitions from one way of producing, distributing and consuming energy to another, cleaner way of doing so. It would be good if this could be seen only as a process of mutual support. However, as the talks in Bonn show, they are also hard-nosed negotiations which revolve around the exchange of concessions.

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The new northern powerhouse – the home counties and Oxford | Letters

Guardian readers on the economic divisions facing Britain

Before anyone leaps with joy at the commercial prospects of the Oxford-Cambridge sprawl belt (Hammond urged to invest £7bn in transport links for new towns, 17 November), they should read Larry Elliott’s bleak exposition of the two nations we have become (No wonder the north is angry. Here’s a plan to bridge the bitter Brexit divide, 17 November). It’s curious how the greenfield sprawl lobby has always been obsessed with the northern home counties and south-east Midlands. Andrew Adonis’s enthusiasm for the Oxford-Cambridge axis is only the latest chapter in a saga stretching back to Letchworth Garden City in Edwardian times.

Low-density greenfield development is highly profitable for developers and really good at increasing traffic and greenhouse gas emissions. It’s also proved good at dragging wealth out of places that desperately need it to regions which lack the housing to support population growth. Backing economic “winners” just perpetuates an endless spiral of housebuilding, roadbuilding and destruction of our precious farmland. It also exacerbates the dangerous divide between rich and poor regions.Jon ReedsSmart Growth UK

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