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Climate change spells turbulent times ahead for air travel

From rising temperatures preventing take-off to rising seas flooding runways, aviation needs to adapt to changes already grounding flights around the world

Phoenix gets hot. But not usually as hot as last June, when the mercury at the airport one day soared above 48C. That exceeded the maximum operating temperature for several aircraft ready for take-off. They didn’t fly. More than 50 flights were cancelled or rerouted.

Thanks to climate change, soon 48C may not seem so unusual. Welcome to the precarious future of aviation in a changing climate. As the world warms and weather becomes more extreme, aircraft designers, airport planners and pilots must all respond, both in the air and on the ground. With about 100,000 flights worldwide carrying eight million passengers every day, this is a big deal.

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Pollen data shows humans reversed natural global cooling | John Abraham

Current temperatures are hotter than at any time in the history of human civilization

In order to understand today’s global warming, we need to understand how Earth’s temperatures varied in the past. How does the rapid warming we see now compare with past natural climate changes? Also, how long have humans been having an impact on the climate? These are some questions that can be answered through paleoclimate studies. Paleoclimate research uses natural measurements of the Earth’s temperature. Clever scientists are able to estimate how warm or cold the Earth was far back in time, way before we had thermometers.

Readers of this column are probably familiar with some of these paleoclimate techniques that may use ice cores or tree rings to infer temperature variations. A different method that uses plant distribution was a technique used in a very recent study published in Nature. That technique used pollen distribution to get an understanding of where plant species thrived in the past. Those distributions gave them insights about the temperatures. On the surface, it’s pretty straightforward. Tropical plants differ in major ways from plants that live in, say, the tundra. In fact, plants that thrive where I live (Northern USA) differ from plants that populate landscapes further south.

Pollen works well as a temperature recorder because plants have specific temperature ranges that they can tolerate. By combining the temperature requirements for dozens of different plants that we can recognize from their pollen, we are able to narrow down the possible temperatures at the location where the pollen was collected.

We use pollen rather than other plant fossils because pollen is widespread each spring and settles to the lake bottom where it is surprisingly resistant to degradation. We wash the samples of lake bottom mud with acids that can dissolve minerals, but the pollen can tolerate it. It lasts up to millions of years with degrading.

The major significance here is temperature across two continents over the last 11,000 years. The paper provides a geologically long-term perspective on recent temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and the ability of climate models, such as the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) models used in the study, to predict the changes. Climate simulations do a strikingly good job of forecasting the changes.

I would say it is significant that temperatures of the most recent decade exceed the warmest temperatures of our reconstruction by 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit, having few -- if any -- precedents over the last 11,000 years. Additionally, we learned that the climate fluctuates naturally over the last 11,000 years and would have led to cooling today in the absence of human activity.

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Labor MP says Adani mine would displace jobs and sabotage Paris targets

Mark Butler says development of Galilee basin is not in Australia’s national interests

The shadow climate change minister, Mark Butler, has warned the development of the Galilee basin is not in Australia’s national interest, because it would displace mining and jobs in existing coal regions, and would not help the world meet its obligations under the Paris climate agreement.

Butler has used a speech to the Sydney Institute to argue the controversial Adani coal project is “utterly exceptional” because it is the only significant export-oriented greenfields mine opening up “on the face of the planet”.

Related: Bill Shorten says there's a 'role for coal' and Adani mine just 'another project'

Related: Labor shouldn't toughen its stance on Adani coalmine, CFMEU head warns

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Emissions increases approved by regulator may wipe out $260m of Direct Action cuts

Exclusive: Nearly 60 industrial sites get green light to increase emissions, cancelling out cuts paid for by Coalition using public money

Nearly 60 Australian industrial sites have been given the green light to increase greenhouse gas pollution, potentially cancelling out hundreds of millions of dollars of public spending on emissions cuts under the Coalition’s Direct Action climate policy.

The increases have been quietly approved under the “safeguard mechanism”, which was introduced as part of Direct Action to ensure cuts paid for using the main part of the policy – the emission reduction fund – were not undone by emissions increasing in other parts of the economy.

Related: Electricity retailers could defer emissions reductions under Coalition plan

Emissions growth is outpacing the abatement from the emissions reduction fund, so what has been the point?

Related: A great year for clean energy in Australia ends, while bad news for coal continues | Simon Holmes à Court

Related: Coalition's climate policy review reveals it will loosen pollution safeguard

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It'd be wonderful if the claims made about carbon capture were true | Simon Holmes à Court

Josh Frydenberg talks up carbon capture and storage not because it’s effective but because it’s a point of political difference

The International Energy Agency warned this week that, under current energy policies, Australia is unlikely to meet its 2030 climate commitments.

While the agency had lots to say about the plunging costs of renewables and the need for strong market signals to encourage the retirement of old and inefficient coal generation, Josh Frydenberg, the federal environment and energy minister, seized on the agency’s support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) – despite the technology’s long history of big promises and meagre results.

Related: ‘Silver bullet’ to suck CO2 from air and halt climate change ruled out

The only way CCS on coal will ever be built at scale is with a carbon price so high it’d kill the rest of the coal sector.

Related: South Korea's Ahn Hee-Jung on coal trade: after Paris 'everything should change'

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South Korea's Ahn Hee-Jung on coal trade: after Paris 'everything should change'

Australia sells South Korea $6bn of coal a year, so Canberra unease over the governor’s anti-coal message is unsurprising

For a South Korean presidential hopeful, Ahn Hee-Jung is not what you would expect.

Related: Energy economics group says export market for Australian coal will decline

Meeting South Korea's Governor An Hee-jung to discuss working together to meet regional challenges & #WinterOlympics2018 ~❄️ pic.twitter.com/nnGrchOsSo

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Balearics launch pioneering plan to phase out emissions

Green manifesto for 2050 includes measures for transport and clean energy but could put islands on a path to confrontation with Madrid

The Balearic islands’ government has launched a pioneering plan to phase out greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, potentially setting itself on a collision course with the Spanish government.

Under the green manifesto, new diesel cars will be taken off the car market in Ibiza, Majorca, Menorca and Formentera from 2025 – the same year that all street and road lighting will be replaced by LEDs.

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News network climate reporting soared in 2017 thanks to Trump | Dana Nuccitelli

But the networks need to improve reporting on climate events unrelated to Trump

In 2016, US TV network news coverage of climate change plummeted. News coverage was focused on the presidential election, but the corporate broadcast networks didn’t air a single segment informing viewers how a win by Trump or Hillary Clinton could affect climate change or climate policy. That followed a slight drop in news coverage of climate change in 2015, despite that year being full of critical events like the Paris climate accords, Clean Power Plan, and record-breaking heat.

The good news is that the annual analysis done by Media Matters for America found that in 2017, network news coverage of climate change soared.

The president believes the climate is changing, and he does know that pollutants are a part of that equation.

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Electricity retailers could defer emissions reductions under Coalition plan

Discussion paper proposes national energy guarantee ‘flexibility’ by deferring proportion of obligations

Electricity retailers could be allowed to defer a proportion of their emissions reductions obligations under the Turnbull government’s national energy guarantee to give the energy sector time to adjust to the new regime.

The deferral idea is floated in a new discussion paper about the guarantee prepared by the Energy Security Board to kick off consultations about how the Turnbull government’s proposal would work – assuming the Neg gets the backing of state governments.

Related: Energy guarantee protects coal sector from renewable competition – analysis

Related: What is the national energy guarantee and is it really a game changer?

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Labor shouldn't toughen its stance on Adani coalmine, CFMEU head warns

Tony Maher says there is no point in winning the Melbourne seat of Batman while losing seats in central Queensland

The mining union says there is no need for Labor to toughen its stance on the controversial Adani coalmine, warning there is no point in winning the Melbourne seat of Batman while losing seats in central Queensland.

The CFMEU’s national president, Tony Maher, told Guardian Australia if federal Labor took the hardline stance against the Adani coal project it was currently telegraphing, promising to stop the mine if it won the next election, then “what do you do with the next [coalmine], and the next one, and the one after that?”

Related: Adani Australian CEO's record 'wouldn't have altered mine approval'

Related: Labor can unify the left by opposing Adani, but it can't forget its blue-collar base | Peter Lewis

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